Aug 26 WHAT HAPPENS TO CONDOS DURING MARKET VOLATILITY?

Working with hundreds of pre-construction condo investors each year, we invariably have the "how does the current stock market volatility affect the condo market?" conversation on a daily basis.
Clients are usually shocked to hear our response:
"This is an EXCELLENT time to invest in Toronto's pre-construction market."
HERE ARE THE FACTS...
Before I begin, I'd like to point you to an article in the Toronto Star written by my good friend George Carras, president of RealNet Canada.(RealNet tracks every new home sale in Canada, and is the authority on statistics and data for the Canadian real estate industry).
In this article, Mr. Carras shows the difference between the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) and the Toronto High Rise Condo index price, provided in dollars per square foot.
The chart above is taken from this article.
It clearly shows that during the 2008 financial crisis, Toronto's pre-construction condo market was one of the ONLY markets that did NOT lose value or go "down".
The article also mentions that if you compare the performance of the two markets over the last five years, the TSX is currently up approximately 5 per cent (with considerable volatility) while the RealNet High Rise Index Price is up approximately 53 per cent (with very little volatility).
SO WHY IS TORONTO'S PRE-CONSTRUCTION CONDO MARKET SO HOT, AND YET SO STABLE?
During our workshops and client consultations, we cover this info in much greater detail.To give you a snapshot, here are what we consider the top 4 factors:
A) IMMIGRATION
Unlike most other cities in the world, Toronto is very unique in terms of population growth. According to Stats Canada, there are approximately one million new people expected to come to Toronto over the next 10 years - and these people need a place to live.RealNet states that the Greater Toronto Area requires 40,000 new homes to be built each year, and we actually have a SHORTAGE! We can't keep up with demand, which constantly raises prices.
There's also the Greenbelt policy instituted a few years ago, which protects a vast area of land surrounding the GTA from density. Basically, we're at an all time low in terms of supply of new low rise homes, since developers can't build in the protected areas, forcing developers to build 'up' (aka - condos!)
2010 was the first time that condos sales surpassed homes sales in the GTA.
As long as immigration policies stay the same, which they are expected to for a long time, we will always have a strong demand in Toronto.
B) INTEREST RATES
Interest rates are another key factor. With interest rates at all time lows, more people can afford to buy versus rent, and condos become more and more attractive to investors. With new home prices (low rise) being out of reach, however, first time buyers are almost forced to purchase condos.We must always carefully watch what happens to interest rates. Due to the current economic crisis, and with more capital moving out of stocks and into bonds, interest rates are expected to stay low - which is GREAT news for the condo market.
C) CANADIAN BANKS
Canada has one of the most stable banking systems in the world - in fact, we are the envy of the global financial markets. We also have extremely stringent rules when it comes to construction financing and real estate investing.For example, a developer will typically need to sell 70-80% of units in a new project prior to receiving construction financing. Plus, recent changes to mortgage rules require investors to deposit a minimum of 20% on a new condo purchase.
Bottom line - don't expect a U.S. melt down in Canada any time soon!
D) LEVERAGE
When you purchase a pre-construction condo, a developer will typically only require 15-20% within the first year. When you purchase at the start of a project (which we always recommend), there is a 3-5 year window until the project is completed. During that time, your ONLY investment is the deposit.To illustrate this benefit - if you purchased a $300,000 condo 5 years ago, your investment would have been $45,000 (or 15%). Based on RealNet's figures above, the index price has increased by 53% - which means this unit could be worth $459,000 (a 53% increase on the value of the unit)
But remember - you only invested $45,000, so this increase actually represents an approximate 353% return on your investment!
PLUS - if you had an assignment option in your original agreement, you could 'assign' your unit before closing at current market value, without worrying about closing costs, mortgages, or land transfer taxes!
WANT TO LEARN MORE?
The team at Toronto Condo Boutique and Condo Academy are currently offering Condo Investor Mastermind Sessions - groups of 8 to 12 condo investors in a private 2 hour educational session to learn how the industry works, how to receive the best deal, where to invest, and how to make the most return on your investment.These sessions are typically $250, but as a special promotion use promo code "REALNET" in the form below before September 30th to receive a free ticket to one of these sessions.
If you would like to book a spot at one of these sessions, please fill out the following form:
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